Peak oil

Posted Fri, 27/11/2009 - 20:01 by pip

So Pip what is Peak Oil?

Oh crap!

Fools rush in where  clever wearers of clogs don't dare venture, but here goes .

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by Tiff - 30/11/2009 - 10:14

Peak Oil refers to the point at which oil becomes harder and harder to
extract. This causes the price of oil to increase and eventually reach
the point when it becomes more expensive to extract than it is worth.
For more information, please google 'hubbert's peak'

by pip - 01/12/2009 - 09:56

Thankyou Tiff for rushing in and explaining peak oil to us all.

My rambling version will arrive one day I promise.

by jonwalker - 01/12/2009 - 10:56

Every oil field has a natural cycle like the red curve which is part of the MASTT logo. You find the oil, start to pump it out - slowly at first  - and then quicker and quicker.  Eventually you get to the top of the curve -  the peak -  and then no matter how hard you try the amount of oil you can get out just gets smaller and smaller. It's downhill all the way until it's all gone.  Back to zero.

The peak was first predicted by Hubbert in the US who said all the oil in the States would peak during the 1970's  -  and he was right.   The big question is : when will all the oil in the planet peak ???   There are dozens of different predictions but the answer is About Now !

 So we've used about half of all the oil reserves on the planet and there's about half left.  Unfortunately there are two other factors which make everything much worse than the "well we've still got half of it left !" approach

 1.  Demand is still rocketing as China and India continue to boom.  And then the good-old free market takes over and prices soar.  Today it's $67 a barrel during the worst recession we've seen for decades.  But if we ever get back to growth and the peak is acknowledged ,  the $150 price we saw last sumer could look cheap!   And don't forget all the reports from whistle-blowers who say that the International Agencies who estimate oil reserves all distort the figures to avoid panic buying.

2.  Half the oil is left but all the best oil has gone.  So it now takes so much energy to find and extract and process the remaining oil that the net energy you get is a fraction of what it used to be.  So although we've only used 50% of the oil -   we've used more like 75% of the energy we can get from the planet's oil treasure chest.

 So the party is over !!   Time to jump on yer bike and find a way to avoid the grid-lock on the M62.

by pip - 01/12/2009 - 17:42

Blow me away ! Now Jon gets into the talking before I can get back. 

"But" I hear someone say "The scientists will come up with the answer".

I'd sure like to believe that but take a look at the solar panels that go up on roofs to generate electricity. Most everyone I've talked to about them say they just aren't good enough for our little old country. They simply don't generate enough electric to make them feasable to buy.

Remember the panels will have a limited life and if they cost more to buy than you can get back over that lifetime, well is it worth while doing in the 1st place ?

Maybe if you're rich but most of us ain't rich so its a non-starter for me certainly.

 And we need the fix now not later.

So what can we do ?